Post 171 - August 29, 2020

Day 171…

Yesterday, because we couldn’t go to Disney World, Michael and I did the next best thing. We went to Ikea.

We have wanted a coffee table for the apartment ever since we’ve moved in, but we have never been able to find one that we both liked.  We finally decided that we would get something, anything, to stand in for whatever it is that we ultimately find.

At any time before this pandemic started, a trip to Ikea would just involve figuring out how to get there. Yesterday, we had to figure out whether or not we would feel safe going there. Assessing the relative risks of various situations and activities, these days, requires a constant internal and external discussion.

The problem, of course, is that nobody has any definitive answers. There is far too much that we don’t know about this virus. The guidelines coming down to us from the CDC are, unfortunately, often compromised by governmental pressure.

The politicalization of something as simple as wearing a mask is a perfect example.

Health professionals across the boards are saying that if 95% of us wore masks that 35-65,000 lives would potentially be saved between now and the end of the year. Instead, because of a lack of a unified message from our leaders we are seeing crowds of people at conventions, protests, schools, churches and restaurants not wearing masks.

Because of the vacuum of leadership at the top, it largely falls to us, as individuals, to do the best we can to navigate through these choices.

What do we know? Well, new data is coming in almost daily.  We know that the virus can be transmitted through droplets that occur when people breathe, cough or sneeze. We now know that the virus can also be transported in the air without being in a droplet - so-called aerosol transmission.

The virus can exist for up to 72 hours or even longer on a surface. The only way that that can be a problem is if we come into contact with that surface and then physically transport the virus to either our eyes, nose or mouth with our hands.

The major factors in the transmission of COVID-19 appear to be time and concentration. The longer you are in contact with the virus, the greater the chance that you will become infected.

If you spend an hour with an infected person in a small enclosed room without any air circulation you are almost guaranteed to get it yourself. The longer you stay enclosed with them the more virus will be pumped into the limited amount of air around you. If you merely pass by that same person outside on the street when there is even a light breeze moving the air around, then you are almost guaranteed NOT to become infected by them. The concentration of virus will likely not be enough to affect you. The breeze dissipates it and spreads it around.

Using those two extremes in deciding relative risk, is something that I have found to be helpful.

Another factor, which is just common sense, is distance. If you talk to someone with a heavy viral load face to face, you are going to be on the receiving end of more of the virus than you would be if you were standing further apart. The recommendation, as we all know, is maintaining a distance of at least 6 feet. “At least” are the operative words. The further apart you are, the less likely transmission becomes. There is, however, no certainty that six feet of distance will keep you healthy if, say, the air isn’t moving, and you are with that person for a long time. A long time, in terms of transmission, is considered to be about 15 minutes.

Because of air movement, gathering outside seems to be less dangerous than gathering inside. So, that is why sitting together inside a church has proven to be far more dangerous than protesting together outdoors.

With all of that basic information, it falls to each of us to assess the relative risks of various activities. Given that we are each more or less on our own with this at this point in time, we fall into inevitable conflict. What seems risky to me, of course, does not seem risky at all to somebody else and visa-versa.

Given that, the riskiest thing any of us can do is to gather together is a small confined area over a long period of time without adequate ventilation. The poster child for that kind of activity, is traveling by plane.

Over the course of a flight, you cannot help but breathe in whatever your travel mates are exhaling. The same air is circulated throughout the cabin for the duration of the flight. An infected person sitting in the front of the plane could potentially infect anyone anywhere on that same flight. The droplets from their breathing get circulated throughout the plane. The longer the flight, the more concentrated those droplets become throughout the cabin.

Wearing a mask does not keep you from spreading the virus nor does it keep you from contracting it. Wearing a mask only HELPS stop some of the spread. The mask doesn’t stop all of the droplets containing virus being exhaled by someone, just a goodly percentage of them. So, for shorter encounters the mask can make a significant difference. At some point on a long-haul flight, even if everyone is wearing a mask, there could still be enough of the virus in the air to make some people ill. A short uncrowded flight poses much less risk than a longer crowded one. That seems like something that should be obvious.

Other high-risk activities include going to an indoor bar. Going to an indoor hair salon. Eating indoors in a restaurant. Going to the gym. Doing all of those activities outdoors significantly reduces the risk.

Even indoors, the fewer people that are in with you, the safer you are likely to be.

Grocery shopping, an indoor activity, has less risk than some of those other activities because you are moving through the area. You are unlikely to be in contact with anybody else for longer than a few seconds. There isn’t time for the layering on of the virus. Most stores, these days, are limiting the number of customers allowed inside at any one time.

About three weeks ago, Michael wasn’t feeling all that well and decided to get retested. When we finally got the results a couple of days ago, they were somewhat sobering.

He tested negative for the virus, but he also tested negative for the anti-bodies.

Michael and I both had mild cases of COVID-19 back in March. When we were finally able to get tested in May, we did, indeed, both test positive for the antibodies. We have both been navigating through these days with the feeling that those antibodies were offering us at least a layer of protection.

If both the testing in May and the more recent testing were actually accurate then, like the regular flu, finding an effective vaccine for this is going to be more difficult. Many of the vaccines currently in development are being based on harnessing antibodies.

To me, one of the great mysteries connected with this pandemic is why the President is so pathologically against testing. That nobody has been able to explain to him its benefits as a tool to contain the virus, beggars belief. He only views it as a way to make him look bad. If we had followed the initiatives of other countries and began a systematic way of testing, follow up and contract tracing, we would not be in the situation that we are in now. Until we actually do that, we are not going to get out of the situation that we are in now. That it took over two weeks for Michael to get his results is criminal. Pain and simple. And, ultimately, almost useless.

On Monday, it was reported that a 33-year-old man in Hong Kong was confirmed as having been re-infected with the virus after having recovered from it four months ago. His original infection resulted in mild symptoms and he was asymptomatic this second time. The first time he had it, he had the Chinese strain of COVID-19. This second time followed a trip he took to Spain where he apparently came down with the European strain. That was how health experts were able to tell that they were separate infections.

Yesterday, it was announced that a 25-year-old man from Nevada had also tested positive for the virus a second time. The results have not been peer-reviewed yet, but initial reports seem to indicate the same thing. The two different strains of the virus he contracted were genetically distinct.

Things just got more complicated.

Michael and I are doing our best, as is everyone we know around us, to make responsible decisions about how to live our lives through this pandemic. Maintaining our mental health is as important as maintaining our physical health. We are making choices as best we can, trying to use the information that is at hand and coupling it with common sense. There is no way that we aren’t going to make mistakes.

During my trip across the country, I spent the overwhelming majority of my days alone in the car.

I pumped my own gas.

I checked into hotels that were uncrowded and had advertised their COVID policies. The only people I came into contact with were the people at the front desk, separated from me by a plexiglass shield and masked.

I mostly ate on my own, but the few times I went to a restaurant to eat, I ate outside, far away from everyone else. When the breakfast place I was eating in in Fargo stated getting crowded, I left.

We decided not to go to the march in Washington yesterday because we thought that it was going to be very crowded. And it was. We did go to a protest event on Thursday in Central Park for the Rise and Resist group because far fewer people were involved and we knew we could maintain our distance.

Those were our choices. I am beyond grateful to everyone who accepted the risk and decided to go to Washington for the march. It was important that people were there in large numbers.

We cannot let the Republicans demonize our right to demonstrate. Violence is not a natural result of protest gatherings as yesterday showed.

We must continue to speak up.

And march. Peacefully.

We give that up and the darkness wins.

The Ikea store was well set up. There are arrows on the floor and customers walk through the entire thing in one direction. It was like a retail version of Disney’s It’s a Small World ride. Masks are mandatory. The physical space is enormous with extremely high ceilings. We felt relatively safe.

We looked at about a hundred different coffee table possibilities before finally settling on one. Of course, when we got to the end, it was out of stock. We compromised on another one and $30 later we now have a temporary coffee table to be able to put our feet on while we are watching TV. We will probably have it for years.

This morning, as I am writing this, I am watching all of the coverage about Chadwick Boseman.

His portrayals of Thurgood Marshall, James Brown and Jackie Robinson were remarkable achievements and will remain behind him forever. But it is his portrayal of T’Challah in the Marvel movie Black Panther that was a game-changer.

The only film of its kind to have ever been nominated for an Academy Award presented a strong uncompromising superhero that everyone could fight for and relate to. That he filmed the entire thing while suffering from the colon cancer that ultimately took him from us makes it even more remarkable.

The footage of him quietly visiting kids in the hospital and surprising fans on the Jimmy Fallon show was moving beyond words.

For my friends that knew him, my deepest sympathies.

Rest in Power Mr. Boseman and thank you for your incredible service.