Post 264 - November 30, 2020

Day 264…

It seems like the first COVID-19 vaccines are actually going to start being given out by the end of December.

The CDC’s Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices are meeting tomorrow to vote on who gets it first. Whatever they decide will be a recommendation rather than any sort of hard fast rule. They don’t have the authority to legislate how it is actually distributed.

They met last Monday and have already decided that the first group, that they are calling Tier 1A, should be frontline health care providers and support personnel.

It is likely that that group would also include nursing home residents as well as those in other long-term health care facilities. Those people have accounted for 6% of all cases recorded in the US as well as a horrific 39% of all deaths connected with the virus here.

Before any of that happens, the FDA has to approve the contenders.  Moderna just applied for emergency approval. If the process goes smoothly, Moderna says that they could start inoculating people as early as December 21.

Early data from them indicated that their vaccine was 94.5% effective. Their latest studies released today indicate that in subsequent trials, the vaccine was 94.1% effective but was 100% effective in insuring that those who did get the virus did not get a severe case of it.

Pfizer applied for emergency approval for their vaccine on November 20th.

The CDC estimates that in this country that there are 21 million healthcare practitioners. In addition to that, there are 87 million essential support workers surrounding them. Then there are 100 million adults with high risk medical conditions and 53 million Americans who are 65 years or older.

The head of Moderna says that they are going to be able to provide 20 million doses of their vaccine by December. Each person requires two doses a couple of weeks apart so that would cover 10 million or about 10% of just the doctors, nurses and support workers.

Pfizer believes that it will be able to create 50 million doses of their vaccine by next month, with half of those going to the United States. That leaves us 25 million doses that, with two going to each person, covers another 12.5 million people before the end of the year.  Pfizer thinks that they can vaccinate 75 million more Americans by the end of March.

Even with that, that still only gets us half-way through the Tier 1A group by the end of March. It doesn’t begin to touch the general population.

To be able to get even those vaccines out there, states are going to need the Senate to pass the House’s stimulus package. At the moment, there simply isn’t the money or organization to distribute the doses properly. Unfortunately, the coordination effort that is necessary to distribute them seems far beyond the capabilities of this current Administration.

What all of that boils down to, is that it is going to be a while before the ability to get vaccinated against the virus trickles down to all of the rest of us.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing.

A group called the Pew Research Center revealed that in a recent poll that only 51% of Americans would be willing to take the vaccine - regardless of whether or not the FDA and CDC signed off on it.

The Pew Center is a nonpartisan think tank based in Washington D.C. It is co-funded by the John Templeton Foundation which was described by the magazine Inside Philanthropy as "the oddest—or most interesting—big foundation around." They are interested in exploring progress in religious and spiritual knowledge, especially where it intersects with science.

In 2008 they were awarded the National Humanities Medal. Grants from Templeton go towards scientific research in physics, biology, psychology, and the social sciences as well as more esoteric investigations into philosophy and theology. Recipients of their funding run the gamut from Northwestern and Washington State Universities to the Fuller Theological Seminary.

But I digress.

The messaging from the President around the virus is largely responsible for this distrust.

As his rantings become more and more confused, the disconnect between his assertion that the virus is nothing to be afraid of and his claiming success for pushing the vaccines through becomes more and more pronounced - particularly for his followers.

Why would you need to take a vaccine for a pandemic that is just a hoax? They fear that the Deep State is going to include tracking devices in with the vaccine.

The President’s insensible railings against the election results are further muddying the messaging. He is now claiming that the FBI as well as his toady Attorney General William Barr and the Department of Justice are in on the plot to throw the election to his opponent. At a time when all we should be thinking about is how to stop the astronomical numbers from spiking any further, the President is screaming “hoax” and “fraud” like a madman.

Unfortunately, for those who don’t support the President, anything that was created under his watch is likely to be viewed with a lot of suspicion.

The 51 percent of Americans who say that they will take the vaccine is actually up from where that number was just a month ago. President-elect Biden’s calm measured and thoughtful discussion about the virus and the vaccine have already helped to calm down the public. That number is sure to grow as time passes and we start to be able to see our current President in the rearview mirror.

Listening to the two men being interviewed this weekend was a study in contrasts.

The President-elect, already beginning to govern, talking about the future and discussing serious topics, versus the Mad-King current President lashing out at reporters, lying and making baseless claims against even his own people.

The difference couldn’t be more stark.

The longer it takes to get the vaccine out there, I think the better off we will all be. It needs to become separated in people’s minds from the Republicans and the President. The more it becomes a health matter and not a political one, the more people will start to be willing to take it. The President-elect seems to be signaling that he and his new Administration will follow the science, which is exactly what should have been happening all along.

There are many aspects of a vaccine that simply need time to be able to explore and figure out. With the regular flu vaccine, for instance, it got to be known that the elderly sometimes needed a stronger dose to make it effective. Different populations are likely to react somewhat differently to the vaccine. What are those differences going to be? Will there be any long-term side effects?

How long will the vaccine last is another question. If it’s like the regular flu vaccine, the first people in line to get it may need to be inoculated again before many people in the country have even been able to receive their first doses.

Whatever happens, it seems clear that the holidays this year are going to be different from any that we have ever experienced.

If Thanksgiving is any indication, we have a lot to learn if we are going to get through safely. We still have a week or so to see what effect all of the travel and getting together will have had, but it’s not looking good.

Outside today, it is gloomy and rainy.

The cat is curled up in a tight ball on my backpack. I’m not sure what he likes about that particular backpack, but wherever I leave it he will go to sleep on it. And leave a solid circle of fur. Our supply of lint rollers, which made my eyes roll up into my head last month, are actually coming in handy.

While all I really want to do is lie down next to him, I have to get it together and go out into the wet to run some errands.

Over the weekend, I started putting things away and moving some furniture around so that we can get a Christmas tree. One of the things that sold us on this apartment was that there is a perfect place to put a tree right between our two living room windows.

Rain or no rain, Michael and I are going to go out and get our tree later on today.

It looks like we will have plenty of time to enjoy it. Unlike a usual December for me, it doesn’t seem like I’m going to be traveling anywhere.

Thanksgiving this year, turned out to be one of the more memorable ones we’ve ever had. Christmas will, hopefully, be the same.

I’m not a religious person, but I truly love all of the good will that can be generated around this time of the year.

Candles in the window or candles being lit on a menorah. Gifts given on Christmas Day or on the eight days of Hanukkah or on January first for Karamu Ya Imani, is all the same to me.

They are about gratitude and community.

They are about home and each other.

They shine a light of hope that dispels the darkness that sometimes seems to envelop us.

If these vaccines do get approved and start doing their work, then that will be the beginning of the end of this pandemic.

They may not come before the holidays, but they will get here eventually.

Let’s hope.