Post 30 - April 10, 2020
Day 30…
In some ways, it feels like the world is doing a reboot.
Everything is getting turned off and we are waiting for it all to be turned back on again.
We can’t hurry it up, the screen is black.
We just have to wait until the prompt box pops up.
Yelling at it is pointless. It is going to happen when it happens.
Get a cup of coffee and do something else until it’s back.
How long is it going to take?
The wide gap between testing and actual cases may be the very thing that screws us up.
According to Rich Condit (Thank you E. Sarah Maines) , a virologist and emeritus Professor at the University of Florida, Gainesville, current models by a group called The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation suggest that if the social behaviors that are in place now, the first wave of COVID-19 cases could subside by mid-June with a total accumulation of 93,000 deaths.
The first wave.
If I understand this correctly, here’s where we are at.
What the level of testing we have now is suggesting, is that a mere 3% of the population has gotten the virus.
If that is true, this means that an estimated 97% of the population will still be susceptible to the virus when this is done. (If those who’ve had it really are resistant to getting it again which we don’t know for sure yet)
We will not have achieved the sort of herd immunity that will stop a potentially worse second wave when our physical distancing mandates start to relax, and the virus starts to move again.
It is, however, possible that instead of the 3% of the population number that has been arrived at by actual current testing figures, that as many as 30% of the population may have actually been infected.
That makes a difference.
A significant difference.
Wide-spread testing MUST be a significant part of our National computer restarting.
We need to know who has it AND who had it.
There needs to be a concerted national (international, really) effort to be able to track where this virus is and, more importantly, where it reappears once we start back on our road to “normal.”
If we know that, smaller areas and individuals can be quarantined.
If we don’t know that, we are right back to where we are now - all of us at home.
We could potentially get a second wave that is just as bad or possibly worse than this one if we do not start comprehensive testing and TRACKING of COVID cases.
It is being reported this morning that, according to economists, the US is now in a recession.
It is an election year.
Washington is understandably panicking.
Yesterday, it was reported that the White House was going to stop funding mobile testing sites.
Today, it seems that they have somewhat come to their senses after the overwhelmingly negative response to this announcement from, well, EVERYBODY, and have extended support for the testing through May.
Thank heavens for that.
We need to do more testing.
Period.
New York is well ahead of the nation as a whole not to mention other countries on per-captita testing.
It’s not enough yet.
Not nearly enough.
The NY State lab is now able to process 300 tests a day, they are hoping to get up to 2,000 tests a day by next week.
New York State has a population of nearly 20 million people.
If the White House wants to reopen the economy, and obviously all of us want that, they need to coordinate a nation-wide testing mandate.
We MUST know where the virus is to be able to fight it.
It’s that simple.
Last night, Michael and I attended a virtual Seder.
It was a joyous, fantastic celebration with some of my favorite people.
Here’s my favorite quote from the evening from a piece written by Rabbi David Hartman, “Passover is the night for reckless dreams; for visions about what a human being can be, what society can be, what people can be, what history may become.”
We are rebooting.
We are going to start again.
Let’s take this opportunity to dream, recklessly dream, about what our new lives are going to look like. About what we can do to make our lives, here, together on this small beautiful green planet better. We have been given the chance. The prompt screen isn’t up yet.
Dream.
ְלשנה הבאה בירושלים
L’shana haba-ah biy’rushalayim