Post 41 - April 21, 2020
Day 41…
Walking through New York these days has an obstacle that it didn’t really have in the past.
Yes, there are far fewer people and cars.
Yes, it’s quiet.
These days, though, there are far fewer places to go to the bathroom.
Everything’s closed.
Yesterday, while I was taking a walk, I really needed to go, so after a few blocks I found a boutique coffee store and bakery and went in. The masked and gloved guy behind the counter was kind enough to let me use the bathroom despite the fact that they were take-out only and pointed me towards the back.
I ordered a decaf americano as I went thinking that it was only fair and that I was at least supporting a small local business.
Public restrooms are interesting these days.
Strange people have been in there before you and every surface is a potential virus reservoir.
They are places, almost without exception, however, where there are sinks to be able to wash your hands.
Suddenly those signs that say “Employees Must Wash their Hands before returning to Work” really mean something.
I paid for my decaf and left.
The decaf was $4.50.
That really startled me.
I paid by credit card as I almost always do these days, (who wants to pass money back and forth?) left a dollar tip and I left the store feeling like I’d wasted a fortune.
$5.50 for a cup of coffee when a whole bag of ground beans costs $10.00?
I have been buying ridiculously expensive cups of coffee the world over for almost as long as I can remember, and I have never given it much of a thought.
This pause from our routines has made me painfully aware of just how much un-thought out spending I used to do.
Almost exactly a year ago, on April 15, Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris caught fire.
In a single night, 850 years of history went up in flames.
All of us, all over the world, watched and grieved.
Yes, it was just an old church, but it meant something.
To countless millions of people.
In the weeks and months following, there was a lot of discussion about how it was to be rebuilt.
Should it be the same or should it be reimagined as something new?
Architects submitted ideas with all sorts of modernistic revisions. Ideas like using the structure of the old building but then branching out in bold new directions ala I.M. Pei’s now iconic glass pyramid in the middle of the Louvre.
Lots of heated discussion and lots of angry dissent followed.
Ultimately, it was decided to build back the cathedral exactly as it had been.
Recently, studies have even shown that the 800-year-old wood of the ceiling may have been what saved the structure from collapsing - steel would have melted and brought the whole thing down - so they are now thinking that they will replace the wood ceiling… with wood. The way it was originally.
There will be changes, however, but changes that will be hard to see.
A sprinkler system for one.
Structural changes that will make the new Cathedral stronger and better able to withstand calamity.
The old building used a lot of lead, all of that will need to be replaced with a safer material.
The new Notre Dame will look the same, but it will be, in theory, stronger and safer.
Our economy burnt down.
Our economy has to be restored.
I think we can take that as a given.
But, should it go back exactly as it was?
How can it?
Or should we stop and think about how we can make it better?
We have the time to think about it, while we are waiting, so we should discuss it.
This mad rush to reopen things, right away, is going to lead to a massive second wave of infections.
There is no question in my mind that that is exactly what is going to happen.
I have almost no hope that it won’t.
I pray that I am wrong, but whenever it is that we get back up and running, it’s extremely unlikely to be May 15.
The criminal idiocy of people like Governor Brian Kemp of Georgia and Bill Lee of Tennessee who are reopening businesses TODAY even as coronavirus cases across the country continue to rise can only lead to one end - more cases. More lockdowns.
So, we are all going to be stuck in our homes for far longer than we should be.
We should make use of that time to figure out what exactly we should rebuild and how we should do it.
Our old economy relied on us spending like crazy people, buying everything in sight.
It relied on us being fine with spending $5.50 on a cup of coffee.
And we all did it.
Are we still going to want to do it?
Given how totally unprepared the government is proving to be in taking care of us financially in a crisis, it seems to me that this generation of people are never going to be comfortable without savings again.
These non-essential stores are going to reopen, in some states today, but who is going to have the money or the wherewithal to shop in them?
Crude oil has fallen BELOW zero per barrel.
Take that in.
Below zero.
How is that possible?
Well, nobody needs it.
Most storage facilities in the US are full to capacity. There isn’t room for any more of it.
We aren’t using it.
Oil trading is one of the huge indicators in terms of the health of the economy.
We aren’t suddenly all going to go on vacation.
We aren’t suddenly all going to go to a sports arena in our cars.
It’s painful to say this, but I think that Broadway is unlikely to re-open before there is a vaccine.
As much as I want to remain hopeful and optimistic, I just don’t really see how that’s going to work otherwise.
Well, what if you sold every other seat and left gaps between people?
You cannot pay the operating costs of running a show with 50% capacity.
Period.
50% capacity still doesn’t even give you enough room for social distancing.
OK, so you sell far fewer tickets and you just pay everyone less.
How does that help the economy as a whole?
People in the theatre business who are making 50% of what they once did, just so that they have jobs, are not going to then go out and buy luxuries.
They are going to buy food and pay utilities.
That’s it.
That’s going to be the same with most so-called non-essential businesses.
I am using theatre as my example because it’s what I do.
You could argue that theatre isn’t necessary and that it can go away.
Economically, however, it can’t.
It can’t and leave the nation’s economies the same.
Do you know why every town of a certain size in America has a theatre?
Forget the basic innate need we, as human beings have, for stories and art.
Towns across America have theatres to attract people to their OTHER businesses.
That’s why these glorious old theatres get restored and re-opened.
It’s not because town councils with a soft spot in their hearts for the arts get all gooey and nostalgic, it’s because somebody showed them a spreadsheet detailing the huge economic gains that would happen for the community if they invested money there.
Restaurants rely on theatre patrons to fill their seats.
Parking garages rely on theatre patrons to fill their spaces.
I’m not even talking about all the businesses that supply shows with costumes and sets and lights, etc.
The list of business that have a symbiotic relationship with the Performing Arts is endless.
When I was on tour with THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA a million years ago, we played Providence, Rhode Island for eight weeks. This was when PHANTOM was IT.
They estimated that our eight-week stop in Providence brought in over $50 million in ancillary revenue.
$50 million was spent in downtown Providence over and above the money that was spent to buy tickets to the show at local businesses.
All of our businesses are interconnected.
It took just days to stop the entire world’s economic engine and it’s likely to take months, if not years to reboot it.
I don’t want to seem pessimistic or defeated, I am just not seeing an easy way forward.
We have to think this through.
We aren’t going to be the same people coming out of this that we were going in.
We are probably not going to want the same things.
Some stores are going to close for good but there may be new things that we want or need following this that will cause new businesses to open.
In time, maybe, we will go right back to where we were.
But how much time will that take?
Personally, I don’t think that I’m going to look at a $5.50 cup of coffee the same way again.
We have the time to rethink this.
We should.
There are no simple solutions to what lies ahead of us.
If we want our lives to look the same as they were before this, we have to figure out how to make what made them that way better.
So, we should think about it.